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MCVEY Jun 28, From a macro and asset allocation perspective, we think we may be on the cusp of a secular shift where a new playbook for investing may be required.
This change in policy leads us to favor investments with greater linkages to the real economy — versus purely financial assets — than in the past. We also continue to see nationalist agendas supplanting more global ones.
Against this backdrop, we now favor more upfront yield in the portfolio, we advocate shortening duration, and we place a premium on low-cost liabilities. Wolfe American author and journalist One quick glance at the newspaper headlines these days, and I am left thinking that the events of would be difficult for someone even as creative as the late Tom Wolfe to imagine.
The good news is that uncertainty almost always breeds opportunity for those who are not only prepared but also willing to adapt. We would like to think we are both, and as such, we are using this mid-year update to lay out some important changes to our asset allocation framework.
See below for details, but — to some degree — we think that a new playbook may be required. To this end, we note the following mega macro trends: One must now invest through the lens of fiscal policy accommodation, not monetary policy accommodation.
Without question, this shift within many markets we cover could be the most important one in a decade, driven by governments shifting their emphasis away from monetary policy, which has dominated the landscape since the Global Financial Crisis GFCtowards fiscal policy. At the moment, the U.
Specifically, it could favor assets with greater linkages to the real economy than purely to the financial markets Exhibit It also means that equity multiples have likely peaked, something we have not previously been saying Exhibit By comparison, during the past few years sluggish economic growth meant above normal policy accommodation from global central banks, which was a boon for owners of most financial assets, including long duration debt and equity i.
The problem with fiction, it has to be plausible. Wolfe American author and journalist Nationalist agendas are now aggressively being emphasized over global ones.
Without question, President Trump in the United States is ushering in a different era as it relates to global trade. So, if one is to focus on the signal and not the noise, then we believe any attempt to narrow the deficit will have to involve significant changes in these three areas Exhibit As such, we advocate a heightened scrutiny on capital deployment across these three sectors — at a minimum — of the global economy.
Our bigger picture conclusion, which we detail below in Exhibitis that global trade actually peaked around after a multi-decade upward run. It could also lead to further volatility in the currency market, as trade-affected countries try to regain competitive advantage through potential devaluations.
We remain bullish on the Yearn for Yield, but we are further turning our focus towards hard assets that benefit more from nominal GDP running so hot relative to nominal interest rates.
Both the demographic work done my colleagues Paula Roberts and Ken Mehlman see What Does Population Aging Mean for Growth and Investments, February as well our recent insurance piece see New World Order, April supports our view that the structural bid for yielding assets remain outsized.
This call is a big one, we believe; we think it has legs in terms of duration, and we believe it warrants a notable overweight position from an asset allocation perspective. Similar to the late s, we think that the market is giving investors a wonderful opportunity to buy complexity at a discount.
Importantly, for investment managers with operational expertise, there is potentially a lucrative opportunity to buy companies at a discount, reposition or restructure them, and sell them back into the public markets at a significant valuation increase.
Consistent with this view, our quant work shows that Momentum and Growth are the two most coveted strategies by equity investors over the last three years.
At the same time, Value and Dividend are the two least preferred.Mar 31, · Building Resilience in Supply Chains, developed during phase II of the initiative, explores government and industry sector views on .
CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY Partha Priya Datta A complex system, agent based model for studying and This thesis would not have come into being without the support and help from several Growing Importance of Supply Chain Resilience – .
From a macro and asset allocation perspective, we think we may be on the cusp of a secular shift where a new playbook for investing may be required.
Most importantly, we now see a significant ‘baton hand-off’ in many of the markets that we cover from monetary policy towards fiscal stimulus — perhaps the most important shift in the last decade. Dr. Pearce is a CRN Fellow in Geography with the Sustainability Research Centre at the University of the Sunshine Coast (USC) and Adjunct Faculty in the Department of .
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